Minnesota River Crests, More Coming

The only thing certain about spring flooding on the Minnesota River in Burnsville at the moment is this: Things remain uncertain.

The river crested at 711.52 feet at midmorning Wednesday, far short of the National Weather Service’s earlier predicted crest of 720 feet upriver in Savage. Burnsville officials and businesses use the Savage prediction because the NWS doesn’t specifically make predictions for Burnsville.

“It’s kind of good news, at least for the immediate future,” Burnsville city manager Craig Ebeling said Tuesday.

But don’t put away the sandbags yet. The NWS says there’s a chance of another crest, possibly 716 feet, during the week of April 10.

That chance is less than 50 percent. But weather officials are much more certain – between 50 and 90 percent – that the river will reach 712 feet or higher that week.

The biggest variable, of course, is the weather.

The NWS, which has flood warnings still in place for the area this week, is predicting that a low-pressure system will move into Minnesota on Thursday, accompanied by a wintry mix of rain and snow. Things are expected to dry out on Friday, with high temperatures in the 40s.

Those warmer temperatures could bring more problems.

“With a significant snowpack and ice still in place for areas north of the Minnesota River and the upper Mississippi River, the temperatures and any rainfall will be critical for the next week,” according to the NWS. “At this time, temperatures in the mid-40s may be warm enough to start melting the snowpack...

“However, the snowpack is very saturated, and a degree or two difference in the actual temperatures that we experience from the forecasted temperatures may be the difference in the snowpack beginning to melt again versus keeping the water locked up."

“We watch the same weather modeling that everyone else does,” Ebeling said. “And it was great news for our first immediate crest, but we also know that there’s still moisture out there, and that there will be other potential crests coming.”

The city still doesn’t expect any flooding in residential areas. The two main Burnsville businesses on the Minnesota – Xcel Energy’s Black Dog plant and Kraemer Mining and Materials Inc. – have been sandbagging and preparing for weeks for the river’s expected crests, and with the lower early crest, both facilities remain protected. Xcel crews have raised dikes to 718 feet; Kramer is protected by flood-control dikes to 721 feet.

With the two main businesses safe, city crews are focusing instead on Burnsville’s internal drainage systems.

“We have hundreds of drainage storage ponds, which are part of our flood control and water quality treatment system,” Ebeling said. “We have to watch those to make sure they’re functioning correctly and that the inlets and outlets are not plugged.

“We’ve had people working diligently on that for several weeks. We try to make sure they’re ready for the runoff we know is coming.”

The city has posted a map of the potential flooding area, which indicates how far the water would rise at 712, 716, 718, 720 and 722 feet.