Caucus Analysis: Santorum Victory Could Signal Rough Road Ahead for Romney

After this week, may be the least of Mitt Romney's worries.

In Tuesday night's Presidential nominating caucuses, supposed Republican frontrunner Romney placed a distant third behind Rick Santorum and Ron Paul in two of the covering Burnsville.

The local exception was SD38, site of a recent . There Romney garnered 26 percent of the ballots cast, a little more than half of Santorum's take. Statewide, just 8,202 Republican voters cast ballots in favor of Romney, less than 17 percent. In some counties, Romney's numbers were in the single digits.

"Sometimes Minnesota votes to send a message. I think that was the case here," said Pat Staley, chair of the Republican Party for Senate District 37, which covers a portion of Burnsville, in addition to Apple Valley and Rosemount. At caucuses four years earlier, Romney who took cities south of the Minnesota River by storm, winning almost half the ballots in SD37.

"In 2008, Romney was considered a more conservative alternative to John McCain," Staley said. "This time, Santorum is perceived as more conservative, without the personal baggage of Newt Gingrich."

So it was for Burnsville resident Darrin Lorenz, who voted for Santorum in the straw poll, though Lorenz said his first choice would have been Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann or Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Lorenz, like many in SD40's Precinct 8, described Romney as a RINO—a Republican in Name Only.

"He's too liberal for my liking," Lorenz said. "He built Romneycare in Massachusetts, at one time supported abortion and wasn't pro-gun rights." 

Similar sentiments issued from a sizable number of Ron Paul supporters, many of whom said they felt that Romney was foisted on them by the powers that be. 

"I'm tired of big-name candidates getting shoved down our throats, tired of RINO, Democrat-lites," Rich Kisch said in an address to the crowd at SD40's Precinct 8. "At some point, we must stand up against this or the GOP and its values will be going the way of the Whigs." 

On the other hand, those in Romney's camp argued that their candidate would be able to get things done by appealing to opposition voters and building consensus.

"I have great confidence in his ability to do what he says he will do, to turn this country around," said Barbara Naatjes, the first person to take the stage at SD40's caucus on his behalf. "He's proven himself a leader in many situations and he has an ability to build cooperation between people. It's a remarkable ability." 

Naatjes said these qualities would give Romney the edge over Barack Obama. Dan McElroy agreed, saying he would cast his lot with Romney, though he said Santorum had a certain appeal.

"We can't take for granted that anyone can beat Obama," McElroy warned. "We need to gather behind a good candidate."