Spikes In Crime: A Wave Or Blip On The Radar?

In 2011, Burnsville Police have noticed a disturbing trend: From January to August, the force was called to 43 serious assaults—almost triple the number over that same period in 2010. At the same time, business burglaries have also tripled.

"We're hoping this is an anomaly," said Police Chief Bob Hawkins, who said that his department first noted the increase in June. "Hopefully it will even out by the end of the year."

The spate of aggravated assaults—those involving either a weapon or substantial injuries—is most alarming to Hawkins. The tally for 2011 has already surpassed 12-month totals for each of the previous three years. Almost a quarter involved weapons — guns or knives — or attacked the victim with household objects. One man beat his stepdaughter with a  annother poured a bottle of over his girlfriend's head.

Hawkins insisted that, despite the statistics, Burnsville is still a safe place. Others in area law enforcement said the time span of analysis—the first eight months of 2011—is too short to draw any conclusions. 

The majority of these crimes aren't random. In most of the assaults, Hawkins said, the victim and perpetrator knew each other—about 30 percent were domestic-related. Still, Hawkins acknowledged, these cases, combined with a marked increase in mental health crisis calls, have tested the limits of the 75-member police force.

Though the number of sworn police officers is the same as in 2008, due to budget cuts in 2009, officers who previously specialized in crime prevention are now back on patrol, which limits the department's ability to stop criminal activity before it happens.

"There were a number of times where our resources were depleted because of the seriousness or complexity of these cases, and we had to rely on neighbors (other law enforcement agencies) to take incoming calls," Hawkins said.

Commercial burglaries are also on the rise. As of August, Burnsville police recorded 63—three times the number over the same time period in 2010. In years past, police have attributed rises to a single individual or team working a specific area. Two years ago, police traced 63 burglaries in the northwest corner of Burnsville, along the border with Savage, to a single person. This year, Hawkins said, the causes of these burglaries are more elusive.  

"We want to see if there is a pattern," Hawkins said. 

That said, according to the most recent report, most criminal activities in Burnsville appear to be on the wane. This apparent statistical contradiction is especially puzzling. While there are few definitive explanations for the rise in assault and business burglary, Hawkins theorized it could be a symptom of economic stress and frustration.

"Some (people) don't have the best coping skills to begin with, and it gets to a tipping point," Hawkins said. 

However, according to criminologist Chris Uggen, the link between economic turmoil and increases in criminal activity is tenuous. The 1920s, he points out, were a time of both great prosperity and very high crime. Still, a new pattern may emerge as the economy continues to lag.

"It is often the case that folks who are struggling financially are often struggling in other aspects of their lives, and that has a spillover effect," Uggen said. "This isn't the first I've heard of blips upward in numbers, but there hasn't been a pattern."

The crime rates in Burnsville contrast with an overall drop in serious crime throughout Dakota County, Minnesota and the nation, at large.

Sheriff Dave Bellows attributes the decreases in Dakota County to two things: aggressive initiatives to combat methamphetamines and demographic shifts due to the "graying" of the population. Most crimes are committed by people aged 15 to 30, and their ranks here are dwindling.  

Bellows also cautioned that crime statistics can be misleading, particularly if the data covers a short span of time.

"It's a little like the stock market—it climbs and drops," Bellows said. "To get a sense of what's going on, you have to look at five to 10 years."

Uggen agreed. 

"Six-month data looks a lot different than annual data," Uggen said. "A lot can change."